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RE: [RC] [RC] [AERCMembersForum] Analysis of Fatalities Rates - Kitley, Carrie E Civ USAF AFSPC 30 MDSS/SGSLFI am always surprised at the amount of people who leave for home the day of their ride! Especially those that do 50's. Any so many of them have the comfy sleeper rigs with showers, heat, a/c, etc. We have a tent. lol After I completed my 1st LD-30 at Tejon Ranch in CA, we immediately dismantled our camp, and headed the 4.5 hours to home. I felt terrible doing this to my horse, but it was November and it was only 25 degrees at night there. White frost covered everything. I had the wrong sleeping bag, so froze all night, didn't sleep well, horses were cold, etc. Normally, I wouldn't dream of cramming my poor exhausted girl into a trailer right after a ride, but I just couldn't spend another night there, sleeping in the back of our truck, frozen to the bone! Even though my mare only had to endure a 30-miler that day (she's done many 50's), she was visibly even more exhausted when we arrived home. I made a decision after that first ride, never to do that to her again. I will sacrifice my own comforts for hers in a heartbeat! It's not worth the added distress to my horse and the potential of total loss. I have learned a lot since then. We now stay put until the day after the ride unless we're really close to home (which is very rare). The last ride we did, in Gilroy, CA, there were only 2 rigs left in the whole camp the following day! The place was deserted! I was really surprised. Of course, I have no idea how far the others had to drive to get home. We were 4 hours away from home . . . . so we stayed. Our horses were much happier for it, I'm sure. Carrie Kitley 30th Medical Group, Vandenberg AFB DMLSS?Database Sustainment Specialist (DSS) CACI?International Inc? www.caci.com dsn?276-1077, Comm (805) 606-1077 fax dsn?276-1179 <\_~ // \\ carrie.kitley@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx? -----Original Message----- From: ridecamp-owner@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:ridecamp-owner@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Barb Kemerer Sent: Friday, June 20, 2008 6:56 AM To: Eric Rueter Cc: AERCMembersForum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; Ridecamp Subject: Re: [RC] [RC] [AERCMembersForum] Analysis of Fatalities Rates I know we have to go with the statistics that are available and I believe Truman used the day of and day after the ride. What about those people who finish the ride (25 and 50s) and throw their horse on the trailer and go home. It seems like this is becoming more prevalent at least in the Northeast. Barb Kemerer On Fri, Jun 20, 2008 at 8:24 AM, Eric Rueter <Eric@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote: Truman, I by no means am a statistician, nor a mathematician, nor a physicist -- or even a good speller. But I would like to know if this makes a difference. When you are looking at the death rates from the comparison study, are they not based on individual horses only counted once in a given time frame, and when you are looking at AERC stats you may be counting the same horse multiple times, across multiple years? Does that really make a good comparison? If not which way would it skew the results? thanx eric Eric Rueter Rueter Consulting, Inc. Eric@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 865.988.4134(W) 865.599.3594(C) 865.986.5966(H) ----- Original Message ----- From: Truman Prevatt <mailto:tprevatt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> To: Ridecamp <mailto:ridecamp@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> ; AERCMembersForum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Sent: Friday, June 20, 2008 7:51 AM Subject: [AERCMembersForum] Analysis of Fatalities Rates This paper documents an analysis of the fatality rate of deaths associated with AERC rides. The fatalities for the years of 2003 through 2007 are considered. The reason to look at this question now is with in excess of 110,000 starts in this five year period, the sample size is sufficient to statistically differentiate small proportions with a reasonable confidence. The data are analyzed with the AERC fatalities broken into four categories. The first is all the fatalities. The second is the fatalities in the one day 100 mile events. The third is the fatalities in the "fifty" mile events (all rides except one day 100 and LD rides). The final category is LD. The question of do horses die at a higher proportion as a result of colic in endurance that in the general population is also addressed. Enjoy. http://www.seraonline.org/pdf/death%20rate%20analysis.pdf Truman __._,_.___ Messages in this topic <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AERCMembersForum/message/20014;_ylc=X3oDMTM3amlqdGg4BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEyMDE2MjkzBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTg5MzYyOARtc2dJZAMyMDAxNARzZWMDZnRyBHNsawN2dHBjBHN0aW1lAzEyMTM5NjI3MDQEdHBjSWQDMjAwMTQ-> (1) Reply (via web post) <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AERCMembersForum/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJyZGkzNG1oBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEyMDE2MjkzBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTg5MzYyOARtc2dJZAMyMDAxNARzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNycGx5BHN0aW1lAzEyMTM5NjI3MDQ-?act=reply&messageNum=20014> | Start a new topic <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AERCMembersForum/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJmYWdnamFmBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEyMDE2MjkzBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTg5MzYyOARzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNudHBjBHN0aW1lAzEyMTM5NjI3MDQ-> Messages <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AERCMembersForum/messages;_ylc=X3oDMTJmaDAzdmVkBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEyMDE2MjkzBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTg5MzYyOARzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNtc2dzBHN0aW1lAzEyMTM5NjI3MDQ-> | Files <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AERCMembersForum/files;_ylc=X3oDMTJnbzNhZTJlBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEyMDE2MjkzBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTg5MzYyOARzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNmaWxlcwRzdGltZQMxMjEzOTYyNzA0> | Photos <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AERCMembersForum/photos;_ylc=X3oDMTJmcGc1azc4BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEyMDE2MjkzBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTg5MzYyOARzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNwaG90BHN0aW1lAzEyMTM5NjI3MDQ-> | Links <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AERCMembersForum/links;_ylc=X3oDMTJnbXY2amxkBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEyMDE2MjkzBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTg5MzYyOARzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNsaW5rcwRzdGltZQMxMjEzOTYyNzA0> | Database <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AERCMembersForum/database;_ylc=X3oDMTJkZDUyNWJrBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEyMDE2MjkzBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTg5MzYyOARzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNkYgRzdGltZQMxMjEzOTYyNzA0> | Members <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AERCMembersForum/members;_ylc=X3oDMTJmNGlqbzQwBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEyMDE2MjkzBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTg5MzYyOARzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNtYnJzBHN0aW1lAzEyMTM5NjI3MDQ-> | Calendar <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AERCMembersForum/calendar;_ylc=X3oDMTJlZGlyaGxvBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzEyMDE2MjkzBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTg5MzYyOARzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNjYWwEc3RpbWUDMTIxMzk2MjcwNA--> MARKETPLACE ________________________________ Attention, Yahoo! 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