Re: [RC] [AERCMembersForum] Analysis of Fatalities Rates - Eric Rueter
Truman,
I by no means am a statistician,
nor a mathematician, nor a physicist -- or even a good speller. But I
would like to know if this makes a difference. When you are looking at the
death rates from the comparison study, are they not based on individual horses
only counted once in a given time frame, and when you are looking at AERC stats
you may be counting the same horse multiple times, across multiple years?
Does that really make a good comparison? If not which way would it skew
the results?
thanx eric
Eric Rueter Rueter Consulting, Inc. Eric@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 865.988.4134(W) 865.599.3594(C) 865.986.5966(H)
Subject: [AERCMembersForum] Analysis of
Fatalities Rates
This paper documents an analysis of the fatality rate of
deaths associated with AERC rides. The fatalities for the years of 2003
through 2007 are considered. The reason to look at this question now is
with in excess of 110,000 starts in this five year period, the sample
size is sufficient to statistically differentiate small proportions
with a reasonable confidence. The data are analyzed with the AERC
fatalities broken into four categories. The first is all
the fatalities. The second is the fatalities in the one day 100 mile
events. The third is the fatalities in the "fifty" mile events (all
rides except one day 100 and LD rides). The final category is LD. The
question of do horses die at a higher proportion as a result of colic
in endurance that in the general population is also
addressed.
