Endurance.Net Ridecamp Archives

Thanks a bunch, Truman, for some fascinating info!
laney
Truman Prevatt wrote:

> I've just posted a new study on long term trends in the AERC, it's
> membership and the rides the members are doing.
>
> I can be found at http://www.seraonline.org/Archives/long_term_trends.pdf
>
> This like most of it's kind use the AERC databases and since the
> reliability of data prior to 1996 is in question most of the trends are
> over the nine year period of 1996 through 2004. There is one excpetion -
> that being the trend in 100 mile starts. With the help of the AERC
> office this analysis goes back to 1990 - hence 15 years or 3/4 's a
> generation. I would like to thank the office for thier help. This was
> done for two reasons, a) 9 years is not a lot and b) an abnormally big
> year in 1996 could have biased the results (which was not the case).
> Just a hint on what was seen. First the100 mile starts went from a hight
> of almost 11% of all starts in 1992 to about 4.8% of all starts in 2004
> or in real number 1650 and change in 1992 to 1060 and change in 2004.
> The 1996 number is well within the expected error on a regressions
> analysis (linear fit) to the data. And even with some oscillations in
> the early 90's the data fits well to a linear mode predicted an average
> decrease of 33 starts per year.
>
> There are some other interesting goodies - for example the rapid growth
> in the multiday format.
>
> The data was sliced and diced in a lot of ways to estimate the growth in
> membership trends, what we are chosing to ride over time, and for the
> case of the 100's just who is riding most of them.
>
> Enjoy,
> Truman


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