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[RC] Long term trends study - Truman Prevatt

I've just posted a new study on long term trends in the AERC, it's
membership and the rides the members are doing.

I can be found at http://www.seraonline.org/Archives/long_term_trends.pdf

This like most of it's kind use the AERC databases and since the
reliability of data prior to 1996 is in question most of the trends are
over the nine year period of 1996 through 2004. There is one excpetion -
that being the trend in 100 mile starts. With the help of the AERC
office this analysis goes back to 1990 - hence 15 years or 3/4 's a
generation. I would like to thank the office for thier help. This was
done for two reasons, a) 9 years is not a lot and b) an abnormally big
year in 1996 could have biased the results (which was not the case).
Just a hint on what was seen. First the100 mile starts went from a hight
of almost 11% of all starts in 1992 to about 4.8% of all starts in 2004
or in real number 1650 and change in 1992 to 1060 and change in 2004.
The 1996 number is well within the expected error on a regressions
analysis (linear fit) to the data. And even with some oscillations in
the early 90's the data fits well to a linear mode predicted an average
decrease of 33 starts per year.

There are some other interesting goodies - for example the rapid growth
in the multiday format.

The data was sliced and diced in a lot of ways to estimate the growth in
membership trends, what we are chosing to ride over time, and for the
case of the 100's just who is riding most of them.

Enjoy,
Truman

--

“Many people consider the things government does for them to be social
progress but they regard the things government does for others as
socialism.” Earl Warren




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