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Truman,

Totally agree with your approach that we need good 
consistently collected data.

Are you willing to lead the effort to propose what is 
needed and develop an approach.  I will lead the charge to 
try to get the BOD to act on it.

And even if the BOD does not act, let's
use SERA as the laboratory.

Believe data like this may be available from quite a few 
rides already.
(E.G. past PACs, Biltmore, ROC), etc.  Would you be 
willing to analyze data from some past rides.

For example I would like to know what is the completion 
rate at the big rides for the early front runners and what 
place early in the ride the eventual top ten finishers 
were running.  I believe many of our early front runners 
would be surprised at those numbers.  But I do not have 
the facts.

If you would like to call to discuss in more detail, my 
number is 
1-828-665-1531.

Best regards,

Stagg

On Sun, 28 Sep 2003 09:03:03 -0400
 Truman Prevatt <tprevatt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> In order to solve any problem we need to understand that 
> problem. As you point out "we just don't know."  The 
> AERC, however, provides a wonderful laboratory to look at 
> how horses respond to stress.
>
> The late nobel prize physicists Richard Feynman used to 
> say, "when you don't fully understand a phenomenon  you 
> need to go to the laboratory."  We need to go to the 
> laboratory.
>
> I would suggest on every ride we collect at a minimum the 
> following data on all rides for at least two seasons:
>
> Weather conditions
> Trail conditions
> Elevation gain
> Elevation loss
> Mileage between check
> Hold time at each check
>
> For each horse
> In times at each check and finish
> Out times at each check and finish - allow the 
> calculation of recovery time
> Completion status
> If he/she got pulled for M or RM - at what check
> Any treatment required
>
> After the first season the data can start to be analyzed 
> for any treands and these trends can be validated with 
> the second season data. In reality it would be nice if 
> the above were required in the normal reporting process.
>
> There may be more. The above would add a large amount of 
> data and fill in some of the holes in the database. It 
> should be easily obtainable since most of it is already 
> on the timing sheets of the ride. The AERC could develop 
> a standard Excel spread sheet and supply it to ride 
> managers that would help in reporting this data.
>
> Some say we need a check on the average of every 15 
> miles. Some say we need one hour holds. Some say we need 
> shorter recovery periods. Some say we need to base the 
> time limit on the ride time not elapsed time. Some say 
> all or part of  this is all BS. The only way to make any 
> educated proposals is to collect and analyze sufficient 
> data. If you don't under stand the problem - you can't 
> very well solve it.
>
> Truman
>
> Stagg Newman wrote:
>
> > Question:  How can we better protect our horse.
> > Response Desired:  Good ideas as part of a brainstorming 
> > session.

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