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Bruce, I love this!  Thanks for posting it.

Dyane

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Bruce Weary DC" <bweary@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "AERC" <ridecamp@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, September 16, 2009 9:38 AM
Subject: [RC] Proof through Research


>  It is a common strategy here to call for "research" to "prove" that a 
> current practice in endurance riding (in this case vet holds) has either 
> been shown to be effective or not. Knowing that conclusive research 
> findings are rare in our sport,  the intent is often to try to show that 
> if there is no bona fide scientific proof for how things are currently 
> being done, that we should then be free to change our methods to a more 
> preferred way of doing things, presumably without worry of any harm from 
> doing so. This is a common mistake in logic, and I found the passage below 
> that may help clarify how science attempts to help us understand our 
> world, and it's limitations as a resource for "proving" things. Calling on 
> science to either support a given position, or to refute another, cuts 
> both ways. I like the phrase near the bottom that says "....what we look 
> for is a preponderance of support for our current belief." In our case, 
> regarding vet holds, that would include veterinary experience and advice, 
> as well as historical success. Doesn't mean that things can't be changed 
> for the better, but how we get there is sometimes a more windy road than 
> it first appears.   Enjoy.    Bruce Weary
>
>
> "Scientific proof, whenever introduced or suggested, should immediately be 
> questioned.
>
> According to Popperian theory (a philosopher of science and the scientific 
> method), proof can never be attained through scientific endeavor. This is 
> because science proceeds by refutation of a given hypothesis, and can 
> never be affirmative.
>
> Thus, good scientific research is conducted in the following manner:
>
>   1. Determine the system of interest and its boundaries.
>   2. Collect all the relevant information (from the literature, other
>      scientists, etc.) in order to be able to proceed to step three
>      /intelligently./
>   3. Propose an hypothesis for study. This hypothesis must (or should)
>      be simple, exhaustive and refutable. Ideally, it should be a
>      question to which the answer is yes, no or a number, and after the
>      experiment is completed (provided it is performed well), either
>      the hypothesis is refuted or it is left intact.
>   4. If the hypothesis is refuted, return to step 2 and reconsider.
>      Then proceed to step 3.
>   5. If the hypothesis is not refuted, then return to step 1 and
>      consider modifying the system of interest.
>
> It is important to note, here, that through the classical scientific 
> method, hypotheses can never be supported. Their support comes from not 
> being refuted. This is the reason "scientific proof" is a misnomer. What 
> we have are hypotheses that have not been refuted to date, despite a very 
> large number of challenges.
>
> In order to have proof, we must have access to the "Truth", which cannot 
> be attained outside of the fields of philosophy and pure mathematics. 
> Instead, what we look for is a preponderance of support for our current 
> belief.
>
> It's a tricky point, and one that has come under fire in recent work in 
> the field of philosophy of science, but it should always be kept in mind 
> when any party claims that they have scientific proof to support their 
> decisions or policies."
>
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