The enemy of wood floors is not time, or hours of use, but
rot caused by fungus.
When one wishes to grow fungus (that is mushrooms) one
typically puts horse manure and straw into a wet dark environment. The
manure/urine provides the necessary trace nutrients, in mushroom farms the straw
provides the cellulose. Under your mats, the wood provides the
cellulose. How wet things are depends on where you live.
These facts are the basis for the recommendations, which
almost nobody follows, to remove mats, wash and let dry after each
use.
Since you wish to replace the floor before, not after, a
horse's hoof goes through it, you should test for rot fairly frequently.
Rot usually starts from the ends of the boards, hear a wall. When the mats
are out, see if a screw driver or other pointed object can easily be pushed in
and used to lever out rotted wood. When the rot gets bad enough to be
unsafe, replace the floor.
Ed
Ed & Wendy Hauser 2994 Mittower
Road Victor, MT 59875