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Re: [RC] Eventing deaths -" statistically" relevent? - Sisu West RanchThat statement was an attempt to be scientifically and mathematically accurate. It must not be construed as an attempt to put anyone down.The concept of "statistically significant" is completely separate from any considerations of caring, emotions, humanity, morality, or religion. Of course each and every horse death is important to caring people everywhere, that is not the point. Only if the activity is "statistically significantly" associated with an excess of horse deaths, will efforts to change the rules or add some safeguards have the desired outcome of preventing suffering and death. By the way, as has been hinted, association does not prove causation. It is just a starting point in our quest for truth. When comparing the "dangers" of various horse sports it is not even intuitively obvious what the comparative measurement should be. Pretty obviously, one has to correct for the number of participants. Less obvious, is how do you count the participation. If you use "starts" you may be making short duration events (like TB racing) look safer relative to endurance riding. After all, the TB deaths and injuries are all associated with an ~2 minute performances, while endurance deaths are associated with ~8 hour performances. Using deaths per hour of participation would make endurance look much safer than comparing starts relative to horse racing or eventing etc. starts. We don't even know the comparative death rates (I know that the death rate of horses is one per horse, per year is implied here) of horses in general, endurance horses, trail horses, eventing horses etc. during the time when they are not working. The reason we need to look at this is that when looking at dangerous activities we have to actually consider the excess deaths associated with the activity. My bottom line is: Emotional and moral issues are important, but do not trump science. If any useful information is to be obtained associations have to be statistically significant, but that statistical significance is just a starting point. As my old math professor would say it is "a necessary, but not sufficient condition". Ed Ed & Wendy Hauser 2994 Mittower Road Victor, MT 59875 (406) 642-9640 ranch(at)sisuwest(dot)us =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= Ridecamp is a service of Endurance Net, http://www.endurance.net. Information, Policy, Disclaimer: http://www.endurance.net/Ridecamp Subscribe/Unsubscribe http://www.endurance.net/ridecamp/logon.asp Ride Long and Ride Safe!! =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
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