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Bob spurred my interest and I looked at the metabolic pulls for the 
years 04 through 06. It was late last night and I really needed to do 
some more on this so I did. The overall metabolic pull rate for the AERC 
over this period is 1.93%. Do we have a problem - probably not. However, 
we may have some areas of concern. That is day riders. See below.

Those three years there were 1298 metabolic pulls (M only not RO 
metabolic). Of those 1142 were by AERC members and 156 by day members. 
There were 66948 starters in this period. Of those 24487 were LD's and 
42461 were endurance distances. Of the total starts 6163 were by day 
members. This broke down to 4830 day members in LD's and 1333 in endurance.

There were 906 individual members that accounted for the 1142 metabolic 
pull. Of those 716 had one metabolic pull, 154 had two metabolic pulls, 
28 had 3 metabolic pulls, 7 had four metabolic pulls, none had 5 
metabolic pulls and 1 had six metabolic pulls over the three year 
period. These broke out for LD's to be 181 individual members in LD's 
accounting for 189 metabolic pulls. Of those 173 individuals had one 
metabolic pull and 8 had two. There were an additional 95 metabolic 
pulls accounted for by day members. The metabolic pull rate for members 
was 0.92% and for day members was 1.9% about twice as high.

For endurance it 733 members accounted for 953 pulls. Sixty one were 
accounted for by the 1355 day riders. For the members 589 had 1pull, 129 
had two pulls, 24 had 3 pulls 7 had four pulls and 1 had six pulls. For 
the members the metabolic pull rate was 2.3% while for the day members 
it was 4.5% almost twice as high.

Some observations. The metabolic pull rate for endurance is about 2.5 
times higher than for LD for members and day members. That is somewhat 
expected since 50 miles metabolically is really more than two 25's. Day 
riders get pulled both LD and endurance at about twice the rate of 
members. The pull rate in endurance for day members is 4.5% . While the 
overall pule rate is 1.93% - pull rate for day members is significantly 
higher. The two X factor in both LD and endurance - given the number of 
starts is statically significant. I believe that it is not a finish line 
criteria that is going to help here - it is education. On the bright 
side with our members I don't see that we have a big problem.

I glanced through the history of the three years for the riders with 6 
and 4 metabolic pulls (all rides were endurance distances) to see if 
anything jumped out.

The rider with six started 41 rides, finished 30 and also had 3 lameness 
(L only) pulls and a completion rate of 73%. The one thing that struck 
me was this rider had 3 metabolic in 04 - two on one horse and one on 
another. The rider had 5 of the 6 metabolic pulls and started 17 rides 
in 2004. The other metabolic pull came in 2005. The rider rode primarily 
in the West region. The rider is a lightweight.

The riders with four metabolic pulles:
1. 14 starts 8 finishes and 1 lame pulls completion rate = 57%
In 2005 this rider started 5 endurance rides and one LD. They were 
pulled in 4 of the 5 endurance rides for metabolics - all on the same 
horse. The rides were primarily in the NE region. The rider is a 
featherweight.

2. 25 starts 15 finishes and 2 lame pulls completion rate = 60%
Both days of a two day ride on the same horse! The rider rides fairly 
slow. The rides are primarily in the CT region. The rider is a heavyweight.

3. 23 starts 13 finishes and 5 lame pulls completion rate = 56.5%
Nothing really jumps out here except the low completion rate. Most of 
the rides were in the West region. The rider is a middle weight.

4. 36 starts 24 finishes and 5 lame pulls completion rate = 66.7%
Nothing really jumps out here. Most of the rides are in the MW region. 
The rider is a lightweight.

5. 41 starts 33 finishes and 4 lame pulls completion rate = 75.6
A metabolic pull on one day of a two day followed by a lame pull the 
second, however, the rider was riding a different horse the second day. 
Most of the rides were in the SE region. The rider is a middleweight.

6. 75 starts 65 finishes and one lame pull completion rate = 86.7%
Nothing really jumps out here. Most of the rides were in the W region. 
The rider is a featherweight.

7. 50 starts 38 finishes and 3 lame pulls completion rate = 76%
On a three day ride they were pulled for metabolics on day one and ride 
the same horse the next day (to a very slow finish.)
Most of the rides were in the CT region. The rider is a heavyweight.



--

“He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a 
monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also 
into you.” Friedrich Nietzsche, Beyond Good and Evil


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