Endurance.Net Ridecamp Archives

There is a very good book available and it should be recommended reading 
for everyone who wants to be able to figure out when some one is trying 
to pull the wool over their eyes. When I was called on to teach a 
statistics course at the University of South FL a few years ago - it was 
mandatory reading. It is a entertaining little book by Darrell Huff 
titled, "How to Lie With Statistics." It's been around for about 40 
years since I had to read it when I was an undergrad. In the latest 
incarnation Darrell has come up with a very catchy cover - someone 
sweeping numbers under the carpet.

I see Steph has learned the lessons well.

Want to compare something - try the AERC NC since its inception vs. the 
WEC's and Pan Am's during that time. Look at the pull rates, treatment 
rates and death rates.

Steph - shame on you. You are really stretching on this one.

Truman

Diane Trefethen wrote:

> Steph Teeter wrote:
>
> > There were 10 horse fatalities related to AERC endurance events in 2006.
> > (or perhaps 7 - I'm not postitive on the number). Even at 7 this is
> > more in ONE year than the last TEN years of WEC's.
>
>
> Are you being deliberately or accidently misleading?  You imply that 
> dying at an AERC ride is much more likely than at a WEG.  According 
> the WHC, there have been 24 fatalities out of 67,000 starts in the 
> last 3 years, 15 of those endurance-related.  Going back to 1998, 
> there have been 5 WEC/WEGs with a total of 788 starters.  I was able 
> to locate only one report of horse fatalities,  2 horses dying at the 
> 2002 WEG (anyone have more info on horse fatalities related to 
> WEC/WEGs?).  Assuming these were the only horses to die at or withing 
> 6 weeks of a WEC/WEG, that means that at AERC rides, .022% or about 1 
> in 4465 starts died while at WEC/GS, .25%, 1 in 394 starts, the 
> equivalent of about 11.3 in 4465 starts died, more than 11 times as 
> many horses as at AERC rides.  Looked at another way, even if not one 
> more WEC/G horse dies, assuming the number of participants in WEC/Gs 
> remains relatively stable, in order to equal the low death rate at 
> AERC rides, FEI will need to run 85 more deathless WEGs spanning 170 
> years.
>
> But all this is irrelevant because your comments vis-a-vis the 
> relative the statistics on fatalities in AERC vs WEG rides are Red 
> Herrings.  The issue of concern isn't who is worse.  It is how we can 
> expect the American public and politicians to react when they see a 
> horse or horses die on television during an Olympic Endurance race and 
> then see that a substantial percentage of the starters wind up on 
> iv's.  Using the recent Horse Slaughter resolution as a paradigm, it 
> isn't hard at all to imagine that first the animal rights/welfare 
> groups will set up a hue and cry over this inhumane and cruel sport, 
> followed shortly by zealous, vote-seeking, 
> I-am-a-friend-to-all-animals politicos proposing legislation to outlaw 
> Endurance in the United States.
>
> THAT is what is scary.


=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Ridecamp is a service of Endurance Net, http://www.endurance.net.
Information, Policy, Disclaimer: http://www.endurance.net/Ridecamp
Subscribe/Unsubscribe http://www.endurance.net/ridecamp/logon.asp

Ride Long and Ride Safe!!

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=