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Re: [RC] Jeanie- LD or 50 - Truman Prevatt

From what I remember of Mike's article - the 75 were close to the 50's and given the small number of 75's probability any difference was statistically insignificant. I haven't bothered to look at 75's since there are so few entries (the percentage of the total number of starts is a whopping 2%) that one has to question the reliability of any statistic that would result. At 2% that is about 400 starts per year in the entire AERC. The ability to estimate a percentage in the 10 to 20% rate with that small of a sample with much confidence is low. That is if it is 13% the mean number of pulls would be 52 and the variance would be 45.24. That doesn't result in a large confidence in estimating the pull rate.

For example say the estimate is 13%, the 3 sigma interval would between 8% and 18%. So while the pulls/starts for 75's may be a little higher that pulls/starts on 50's given there are 12000 starts in the 50's and 400 in the 75's I'm not sure it means much unless much larger than it is. From Mike's article I don't remember it being much higher.

Truman

David LeBlanc wrote:


I think you may also find that the 75 and 80 mile rides have significantly
lower completion rates than 50's, but not nearly as striking as the 100's.


--


“Ethical axioms are found and tested not very differently from the axioms of science. Truth is what stands the test of experience.” Albert Einstein


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Replies
RE: [RC] Jeanie- LD or 50, David LeBlanc