Endurance.Net Ridecamp Archives

Diane Trefethen wrote:
> No matter how carefully you do a study, if the data is flawed, the 
> study results are unreliable.  In the case of the AERC LD times, the 
> question is not IF the data is flawed, it is HOW MUCH is the data is 
> flawed.



First the AERC database is not good for individual results prior to 1996 
when the new system came on line. Second the results on individual LD's 
were probably not reliable prior to 2000. From that point on most of he 
hic cups seem to be removed.

The ride managers know what ride time is and should be reporting it. As 
far as LD's being won in 4 hours - it happens I just did one and I know 
it happens because on of the juniors I was sponsoring won it in a little 
over 4 hours. So just looking at times is not always an indicator.

As far as flawed data. There are a lot of good hard working people on 
the AERC BOD, on AERC committees and in the office that try their best 
to make sure the data is correct. There a vast majority of the ride 
managers out there that do their best to insure accuracy in their 
results. Will there be a mistake in the 190,000 starts over the past 10 
years - sure a few. But I suspect the data is much better quality than 
you seem to want to believe.

If there are ride managers out there that are purposely biasing the 
database by inputting bad results - then these ride managers don't 
deserve to be sanctioned by the AERC. When a ride manager receives 
sanctioning they are agreeing with the terms and conditions that comes 
with the sanctioning and one of those is to provide the AERC with 
accurate results (which means ride times not elapsed time) within 30 
days of the rides. They have signed a contract with the AERC. If they 
cannot, for what ever reason, abide by the terms and conditions set 
forth by the AERC for sanctioning - they should not be sanctioned again 
by the AERC.  It's that simple.

However, I don't think there are many these day and it seems from 2000 
on the results are pretty accurate. Actually they seem pretty accurate 
from 1996 on but from '96 through '99 there was a lot of change in LD's 
so that shows up. Given on the order of about 20,000 starts a year from 
about 2000 on, a few entires at one ride is a drop in the bucket and 
their impact is down in the noise.

So if you can show there are mass irregularities in the data in the AERC 
database I am sure the AERC will be very interested in finding out the 
parties that are intentionally corrupting the database. If you can't 
then maybe it's time to drop your  insinuations about the corruption in 
the AERC database.

Truman


--

“Ethical axioms are found and tested not very differently from the 
axioms of science. Truth is what stands the test of experience.” Albert 
Einstein


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