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From: "Christina McCarthy" <christina_mccarthy@xxxxxxxxxxx>

> Kat, I really appreciate all that you contribute here on RC.  My
question
> has to do with known lines, such having Wieklki Szlem&Forta, Kontiki
(2wice)
> Silver Vanity, Breeding...what are the chances of an endurance horse
from
> those lines....notable offspring included are Czort, sambor,Juan de
Shawn,
> & by golly.
This is, in fact, a perfect example of why you don't just want to look
at "lines" or "families."  All of the horses that you mention were very
prolific.  Wielki Szlem comes close to being a "foundation" horse in the
Polish breeding program (although his sire, Ofir, would probably come
closer to that description), to the extent that you would be hard
pressed to find any horse coming out of Poland that doesn't have him
somewhere in its pedigree.  It is a little bit like (although here I
exaggerate) saying, "My Thoroughbred traces back to the Darley Arabian,
will it be any good as a race horse?"  It is true that all the winners
trace back to the Darley Arabian, but all the non-winners do too, so, so
what? :)

Wielki Szlem, himself, was a pretty successful race horse, and he threw
some horses (including Czort) who were also pretty successful race
horses (and Czort also appears in the pedigree of some pretty successful
race horses); however, since the Poles have, in more recent years (like
the last 15-20), fallen prey to the practice of breeding horses that
look like American show halter horses, and, as a consequence, are
producing some horses (I am sure) that are as crappy as the "elite"
halter horses here...i.e. not a horse that I would select for endurance.

Additionally, there have certainly been plenty of breeders here in the
states that have used the Polish horses for breeding the show ring crap.
No way to tell if this horse you are talking about is one of them based
on the fact that he comes from the family of Wielki Szlem, or on the
fact that he comes from the "Polish" family of Arabain.

I have not, however, heard of anybody using Kontiki in this way, so if
you have a horse with him in its pedigree, you are more likely to be
getting one that was bred and selected to race at medium/short
distances.  To know whether this selection criteria was successful, you
would need to have access to the race records of the horses close up in
this individual's pedigree.

NONE of the horses you mention is noted for producing endurance horses
with longevity.  This doesn't mean that none of them has produced
endurance horses with longevity, just that nobody has done the pedigree
research to determine if/whether this is the case.  Additionally, since
these horses were, until recently, not even tried on the endurance
circuit, you are unlikely to find much data with respect to them being
successful, or unsuccessful at it.  Especially since the reason that
they haven't much been tried is that many of them have been successful
at what they WERE bred for, and therefore haven't "ended up" in
endurance.

There is, actually, virtually no unbiased research into what "lines" are
successful in endurance and which ones aren't; and I am not sure that
the necessary data even exists to be able to do it.  It isn't just a
matter of looking at the pedigrees of horses that are successful, since
this may just be an indication of what are the lines of the horses that
people even "try" to use for endurance.  You would have to compare the
percentage of successful horses of one particular line to the percentage
of non-successful horses of the same line (i.e. you would have to know
the pedigrees of all starters, not just the "winners").

And you can't just be looking at Arabian pedigrees either (i.e. you
can't confine yourself to just the Arabian "family"), because there is
certainly evidence that horses of non-arabian blood are also successful
with respect to longevity in endurance competition.  Certainly, some of
the highest mileage AERC horses are half arabians (Tulip, Astro Aries
come to mind), an Icelandic (Remington), a Spanish Mustang (Geronimo's W
arrior), and considering the fact that there are so few starters of
non-arabians compared with arabians, this is SOME indication that
longevity as an endurance horse is not an Arabian trait at all.
Granted, there are plenty of high mileage arabians as well (probably
more than non-arabians), but are they proportionally represented with
respect to their starters???  I don't know.

With respect to the prospect that you are looking at, you would do far
better to look at the individual horse than at its pedigree.  You have
mentioned some horses in its pedigree that are noted for their ability
to throw athletic horses, and you describe a pedigree that doesn't look
much like anybody was trying to produce a show halter horse, so it is
"good enough" to consider that the individual might be a good endurance
horse (i.e. you haven't mentioned anything in its pedigree that makes me
think, oooh no, stay away from that :)), but then Steph Teeter's horse
Great Santini has a pedigree that screams halter/show horses (although
he does trace back to both Czort and Wielki Szlem), and I happen to know
that he was specifically bred to be a halter and/or Park horse, so,
judging from his close up family I wouldn't choose him; however, has has
been competing in endurance for going on 8 years now, has over 2000
miles (so not super high mileage, but it has also included at least one
Pan Am plenty of top tens and quite a few BCs) and to my knowledge he
has never taken a lame step.

The variables that go into making an endurance horse with longevity are
so complex and have so much intricacy (not to mention the fact that it
is VERY dependent upon how the horse is managed), coupled with the fact
that virtually nobody has selected specifically for this ability, that
looking at pedigrees is unlikely to tell you much at all about whether
the horse will be a good prospect.

You haven't mentioned anything that I would stay away from, so go look
at the horse, and evaluate the individual.  The first thing you should
look at is the horse's back.  Does it have a good top line, with
someplace to put the saddle and the ability to carry a rider, looking at
that will tell you much more about whether this particular individual
will make an endurance horse with longevity than looking at its pedigree
will.

Yes, there are some "families" in which good backs are more the rule
than the exception (one of those families is the "Thoroughbred"
family:)), so you are more likely to find an individual that meets this
description if you look at just those horses; however, they are not the
only horses that meet this description, and it has been pretty well
demonstrated that indivduals of pretty much any extraction can be
successful endurance mounts.  After you have the individual to evaluate,
pedigree is only relevant if you are looking at breeding stock (and,
BTW, there isn't anything that you have mentioned in this horse's
pedigree that would make me say, "Oooh no, there is no way that I would
use that individual as breeding stock."  Assuming I liked the way the
individual looked, I would take it out on the competition circuit (or on
the trail if what I wanted was to breed trail horses) and see if I like
the way it performs.

Which, btw, is what I would do with a TB that I was planning to race as
well. ;)

kat
Orange County, Calif.



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