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So what this seems to say is that the team members were not successful 
in riding any more conservatively than the overall group. The number of 
finishing teams fits the probability very well as only 4 teams 
finishing. Team riders didn't successfully apply a strategy that would 
maximize finishing any better than the individual riders.

Or could one say that the effect of speed, the difficulty of the course, 
and strict vetting was stronger than any strategy used by the 31 teams 
given that each team felt that some amount of speed was required?

Mike

Truman Prevatt wrote:
>  From the back of the envelope:
> Assuming the probability of a team member finishing is .38 - the at 
> random the probability of a team for a team of 4 is
> 4 finishing .0209
> 3 finishing .136
> 2 finishing .333
> 1 finishing .262
> 0 finishing .1478
>
> The mean number of riders on a team finishing is 1.44. The most likely 
> number finishing on a team is 2.
>
> The probability of a team finishing ( 3 or 4) is or about .157 or 15.7% 
> of the teams would finish. I don't know how many teams finsihed but 
> taking the 31 number (180 riders divided by 6 per country so 30 ro 31 
> makes sense) at random that would be 4.867 teams finishing. I do belive 
> there were more than 5 teams finishing.
>
> Truman
>
> Michael Maul wrote:
>
> > It's been pointed out that the US finished 0% of it's team compared 
> > rather than 33% as I mentioned in my post on team strategy.
> >
> > I knew that when I posted team - I should have said group. But I 
> > expected that overall stats would be similar for riders in teams as 
> > they are for the group.
> >
> > If we look at the members of the teams that started (113) and those 
> > that finished - 43 - the finishing rate for riders who are a part of 
> > teams is just about exactly the same as the whole group 38% vs 36%.
> >
> > On that basis - I'd expect it to be pretty difficult to finish a team. 
> > There were something like 31 teams that started. I don't know how many 
> > teams finished but I'd expect it to be a lot smaller than 33%.
> >
> > It would also be reasonable to expect the riders on a team to finish 
> > at a higher rate than individual riders due to wanting to be 
> > conservative and finish. That's apparently not the case. I'd be 
> > interested in hearing thoughts from the group as to why they think 
> > this is the case.
> >
> > But I certainly agree that the US _team_ finished at a significantly 
> > lower completion rate than the average rider.
> >
> > Part of that may be statistics and certainly part strategy.
> >
> > Mike
> >
> >
> >
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