 |
[RC] fitness parameters and science - Sisu West RanchI find it interesting that when Mr. Ivers does not like a conclusion, for example: "Fitness levels in horses decline slower than in humans", he states that one can not rely on studies of TB's since they are not fit or the study did not look at enough parameters. A couple of days ago he quoted a study of TB's that had concluded that 2yr olds that are raced hard do not break down as fast as TB's that don't start training until 3 yr olds. This study agrees with his conclusions so he imlpied we should believe it. I read of this study in another publication. It is one of those preliminary studies that implies a better study is needed. It analyzed race starts, so there is a distinct possibility that there were differences between the population that was raced as 2 yr. olds and the population started as 3 yr. olds. By the way, this post does not intend to state any opinion about the truth of the above conclusions. It also does not intend to prove that Mr. Ivers does not carefully evaluate the validity of the literature he cites. It just points out that there seems to be some inconsistency in reasoning he gives in some of his posts This all relates to the statement, often heard, that science changes and what is supposedly true this year may be disproved next year etc. In most cases if you read the refereed literature very carefully you find that it is the extrapolated conclusion that was wrong not the science. I will illustrate my point with a hypothetical example. It is possible that if one took a statistical number of TB weanlings, divided them up into groups and started training for racing at 2, 3, and 4 years of age you would find that the older the horse was when training started, the fewer the breakdowns. This would not invalidate the study quoted above, it would just mean that the owners of the horses had successfully identified individuals that could safely start training at an earlier age. Science is good, but one has to read it very carefully before extrapolating or acting on the results of an experiment. If you gave me enough Moose Drool, I could tell you a number of campfire stories of how I jumped to conclusions and caused financial losses to my employer during my indenture as an industrial scientist. Ed & Wendy Hauser 2994 Mittower Road Victor, MT 59875 (406) 642-9640 ranch@xxxxxxxxxxx =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= Ridecamp is a service of Endurance Net, http://www.endurance.net. Information, Policy, Disclaimer: http://www.endurance.net/Ridecamp Subscribe/Unsubscribe http://www.endurance.net/ridecamp/logon.asp Ride Long and Ride Safe!! =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
|