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Back in '92 we left on vacation for a camping trip in Washington/Oregon 
in August At that time there was a strom off in the Atlantic. When we 
left projection for it by all the models and all the forcast to make a 
turn out in the Atlantic and not be of any problem to the mainland.

We were in the woods for 5 days when we finally emerged and I called 
back in work. The conversation was something like this

Judy: "you missed a day off work, Monday."
Me: "Why."
Judy: "The storm'"
Me: "What storm.
Judy: "Hurricane Andrew, they didn't know exactly where if it would hit 
this far north (central FL) so Joe told us to stay home and get ready if 
we needed to."

We found a bar with a TV and saw what Andrew had done to S Florida.

Granted we have come a long way in forcasting these storms, however, the 
forcast are based on statistical models fromed on the initial conditions 
and the dynamics normally associated with these conditions. There is a 
large error cone assoicated with these projections and the error cone 
gets larger as you go out in time.

Also weather is one few places in nature where "chaotic dynamics" has 
been verified. That is very small error or fluxiations in the initial 
conditions will result in very large differences in the dymanic behavior.

Hopefully this storm will manage to make it's curve before it runs into 
land, but the projects are the the contrary. I suspect the Biltmore will 
be spared any serious probems but rain. However, given the amount of 
rain in the SE this year and the Biltmore basecamp is on a river, a 
significant rain event could produce flooding. We will know in  a few 
days so it's now a waiting game.

Truman ( who climbs on an airplane for PA tomorrow - hopfully I get back 
home when I planned to. )

A. Perez wrote:

> Angie - below is a forecaset.  I highly doubt Asheville will be
> affected much, it is the coast that will get clobbered. The URL
> I got the forecast from is at the end.  Also
> www.washingtonpost.com has a weather page where you can enter a
> zip code or state and get a forecast.  Hope this helps.
>
>
> Today's Discussion  
> POSTED: September 15, 2003 9:37 a.m. 
>
> As of 5 a.m. AST this morning, Hurricane Isabel was centered at
> 24.8 north, 69.0 west, or about 820 miles south-southeast of
> Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. For quite awhile now, there have
> been fluctuations in the strength of this hurricane; now, it has
> 150-mph sustained winds, and hurricane force winds extend as far
> as 115 miles from the very well defined center. Isabel is a
> dangerous, strong category 4 hurricane. The hurricane hunter
> aircraft has determined a central pressure of 940 mb (27.76
> inches). Isabel is moving west-northwest at near 10 mph. With
> time, Isabel will take a more northwesterly turn, and even an
> eventual turn to the north. It seems, looking at the steering
> pattern, that Isabel will strike the East Coast of the U.S. It
> is not a question of "if," but rather when and where. As we see
> it now, the area from North Carolina to New Jersey is the target
> of landfall; most likely the Delmarva peninsula. We expect
> landfall late Thursday night or early Friday. Obviously, we
> still have a couple of days to pin it down, but folks from the
> Carolinas northward should be making preparations now. As far as
> intensity at landfall, climatology and the current information
> tells us that weakening from its current strength is very
> likely. (The water off of the North Carolina coast is not all
> that warm.) Odds favor the strength at landfall to be a strong
> category 2 or a category 3 hurricane. (Category 3 hurricane
> winds are 111-130 mph sustained.) There are a couple of tropical
> waves out in the Atlantic; one about 325 miles east of the
> Lesser Antilles, and the other about 1,590 miles east of the
> Lesser Antilles, but they are not showing any signs of
> development. 
>
> FROM:
> http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/hurricane/ocean.asp?ocean=atlantic&partner=accuweather
>
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