Re: judging a book (or a horse) by its cover

["Jerry Fruth" <hikryrdg@evansville.net>]

Oh, gee golly, here we go getting serious.  And all I was doing was having
some fun.  By a real study, I meant, besides the Tevis.  Kind of putting it
, the study, in real day to day race terms or terain or whatever.  Anything
besides the Tevis.   Bye for now.... a heavyweight that  knows weight does
make a differnce, no matter how you look at it.  Just plain common sense. 
Jerry
Hickory Ridge Arabians web page:
http://www.evansville.net/~hikryrdg

Standing JABASK KNIGHT
On Wed, 4 Aug 1999, Susan Evans Garlinghouse wrote...
>>Now I'm really confused.  Susan is telling us that weight DOES matter!
>>Just goes to show, given enough time, almost any researcher will change
>>their minds....
>
>Jerry, I never changed my mind, you just never listened very well in the
>first place before you drew your own conclusions. :-)  If you'd ever read
>any of the research articles (they're on my website at
>http://shady-acres.com/susan/ ), you'd know that all along, I've been saying
>that weight does make a difference, just not in the way that it's been
>traditionally thought.  Rider weight under Tevis-type conditions (I'm not
>going to say that Tevis conditions apply to every other race) makes FAR less
>difference than other factors do.  Horses that are skinny do much worse and
>are usually going to pull for metabolic failure.  Horses that are heavier
>(not fat, just big animals), either by themselves or as a combined weight
>with rider, are more prone to a lameness pull.  And that old saw about a
>horse not being able to carry more than 25% of his weight over a 100 mile
>course is nonsense.
>
>>Susan, are you going to go to the National Championship to
>>do some real research?
>
>As far as this being "real" research, Jerry---since the studies resulted in
>two published articles in the scientific journals, one of them international
>in the most respected physiology journal going, well, I'm not quite sure
>what else I need to do to have this be "real" research.  Provide the funding
>and I'd be happy to come collect more data. :-)
>
>Best,
>
>Susan G
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Jerry Fruth <hikryrdg@evansville.net>
>To: suendavid@worldnet.att.net <suendavid@worldnet.att.net>;
>Knaptyme@aol.com <Knaptyme@aol.com>; ridecamp@endurance.net
><ridecamp@endurance.net>
>Date: Tuesday, August 03, 1999 7:28 PM
>Subject: RC: judging a book (or a horse) by its cover
>
>
>Best.... Jerry
>>Hickory Ridge Arabians web page:
>>http://www.evansville.net/~hikryrdg
>>
>>Standing JABASK KNIGHT
>>On Fri, 30 Jul 1999, Susan Evans Garlinghouse wrote...
>>>
>>>>It is not up to the individual to decide if a horse is overweight or not.
>>>It
>>>>is up to the rider and the ride vet to make sure that the horse can
>>>>start/continue the ride successfully.
>>>
>>>
>>>I agree.  There's one other point that I failed to mention.  After
>>>collecting data for two years, I had a pretty good idea of how well a
>horse
>>>would do based on how thin he was---very simply, excessively thin horses
>>>have a much higher incidence of pulling, regardless of any other factor.
>>>So, just for fun at the '98 Tevis, I wrote down a "Susan Predicts" list of
>>>forty horses that *I* thought shouldn't have started---not because they
>were
>>>lame or out of shape by the usual standards...I just thought that they
>were
>>>thin enough that, based on the statistics, they had close to a zero chance
>>>of finishing.  (And no, I didn't say that to the rider---anybody that says
>>>anything other than Good Luck, Have Fun or How Can I Help You So You Can
>>>Sleep the night before a 100 mile ride deserves to be beaten to death).
>>>
>>>Well, of those horses, I was right 36 out of 40 times, or about 90% of the
>>>time.  Pretty good.  BUT, there were FOUR horses that the statistics said
>>>didn't have a chance, yet those riders got just the same shiny Tevis
>buckle.
>>>Apparently I neglected to explain to the horses that they had no chance of
>>>finishing. :-)  One of those horses even had the audacity to finish in the
>>>top twenty or so, and science be damned. :-)
>>>
>>>So the point here is that you can predict and crunch numbers and tell a
>>>rider that statistically he should save his money and go home---but how do
>>>you pick the 36 that really should go home and how do you pick the four
>that
>>>will beat the odds?  This certainly isn't an argument for deluding
>yourself
>>>into thinking that you're the exception and will always be the Chosen One
>>>even though your horse looks like a hairy hatrack.  But it does just point
>>>out that this is a fickle sport involving a live creature that doesn't
>>>always listen to what the books say.  And that being the case, IMO the
>ride
>>>management and ride vets definitely should continue to weed out the horses
>>>that are so obviously infirm or ill that even starting would be a
>disservice
>>>to the horse.  Beyond that, until human beings become a lot more
>omnipotent
>>>about predicting the future, then we should trust the ride vets to spot
>>>trouble during the ride and pull the problem horses before it becomes a
>>>disaster.
>>>
>>>Just my opinions, of course. :-)
>>>
>>>Susan G
>>>
>>>
>>>
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