ridecamp@endurance.net: Fashion and "The Market"

Fashion and "The Market"

K S Swigart (katswig@deltanet.com)
Thu, 6 Mar 1997 14:10:46 -0800 (PST)

In last year's Olympics on the American team that won the silver medal,
there was a 3-day event horse (right now his name escapes me) that had
spent the early part of his life as a failed race horse, after which his
owner (whose name also escapes me) sold him for a few hundred dollars.
In a recent interview this owner said something along the lines of, "If
I had known that he was going to turn out to be such a valuable horse, I
would have sold him for more."

No offense meant to this man (whom I don't know), but if he had tried to
sell the horse for more, he wouldn't have gotten it. AND the person who
bought the horse, trained it, competed it to Olympic level competition
spent WAY more along the road turning the horse into an Olympic
contender than the horse will ever be worth, so if that race horse owner
had decided to keep the horse, train it and campaign it himself he would
have lost money. He's financially better off having sold the horse for
a few hundred bucks. Other than racing and showing at halter, what
people pay for when buying a horse is training and proven
performance. One "prospect" is virtually indistinguishable from the next.

Even in horse sports that provide financial incentives to the
participants (TB racing included, which arguably has the highest
financial rewards possible), horse owners spend way more pursuing those
rewards than the horses will ever earn. Alan Paulson, who bred and owns
Cigar (the leading money winner of all time) last year spent about
three times as much money as his horses earned.

Let us disabuse ourselves of the notion that there is any money in
owning horses. Horses are not assets, they are liabilities. The only
guy I know who makes money owning horses is the killer, and he wouldn't
make money at that, if he had to raise the horses himself. Otherwise,
if you want to make money in the horse business, own the feed store : )

Let us disabuse ourselves of the notion that there is any money in
breeding horses. So let's not hear any more complaints about how much
it costs to breed and raise a horse, only to not have it be appreciated
in the marketplace. Presumably, those who breed and raise horses
(myself included) do it for love not money. If not, you are a fool,
because economically speaking you have to compete with people like me
who are willing to do it at a financial loss (an analysis of economic
theory suggests that it is impossible to make money in a business where
most of your competition is willing to lose money, unless you are a
crook--of which there are many in the horse business).

The endurance horse market is doubly difficult, for several reasons (and
here I am going to make some generalizations):

1. Endurance horses do not prove themselves until they are 8-10 years
old. Since all assets lose money over time (i.e. the longer you keep
them the more value you have to add to break even) especially with an
asset that has as high of maintenance costs as a horse, you have to wait
8-10 years before you know whether the horse is "worth" anything as an
endurance horse, by which time the horse will have (literally) eaten its
way through any profits, many times over.

2. Endurance is a very young sport, so there is very little
information (other than theoretical) about what distinguishes a great
endurance horse.

3. Endurance is a very small sport, so there are very few people who
are buying endurance horses at all.

4. Very few people are buying endurance horses are looking for a
"great" endurance horse anyway. Most people are in the sport to finish
(after all our motto is "to finish is to win"), and just about any sound
horse with intelligent conditioning can finish an endurance ride
(especially if we want to call 25 miles an endurance ride). Out here in
California, endurance prospects that can, with intelligent conditioning,
finish an endurance ride are as common as dirt. And yes, they go for
meat prices, because you can go to the meat man and buy the same horse.

5. Most (you will not that I don't say all) "great" endurance horses
are geldings. Therefore, they do not propagate themselves. When you
pay a lot of money for a "great" show prospect, you are buying the "son
of a national champion". When you pay a lot of money for a "great"
racing prospect, you are buying the "son of a million dollar stakes
winner." You are buying pedigree, not just conformation. The single
greatest predictor of success in the show ring or success on the
racetrack is PEDIGREE.

With the exception of Bezetal (and maybe Sierra Fadwah, who incidentally
is closely related to Bezetal), I can think of no great endurance
stallions (not taking away from the accomplishments of DR Thunder Bask,
which are truly amazing). And other than Sharon and Crockett Dumas, I
can think of no one who even bothers to campaign and prove their mares
in endurance performance. Rio is a gelding. Cash is a gelding. Omner
is a gelding. Kallil (I think, but I wouldn't swear to it, Joe?) is a
gelding. Most of the Hall of Fame horses are geldings.

6. There are no data to support an assertion that successful
endurance performance is linked to pedigree (other than "the horse is of
Arabian blood" and even then, it doesn't have to be purebred Arabian).
To say that you are breeding horses from a stallion who has completed a
few endurance rides to mares that may have completed a few endurance
rides, and therefore the get are valuable endurance prospects has little
to no validity (at least no proven validity), and generally speaking, if
you wait until your breeding stock proves itself in endurance before you
breed it, by the time your breeding stock's get have proven themselves,
your breeding stock is almost dead.

6. Many breeders of endurance horses are willing to virtually give
their horses away to great endurance riders, in the hope that their
horses will achieve greatness.

All that being said. I too, own an endurance stallion who I think is
beautifully conformed and has an impeccable disposition. But he is not
even what I would call a proven endurance horse, let alone a proven
endurance stallion. If an endurance person came to me and asked, "What
has he done?" I would have to say, "Well, not much; he's completed over
1,000 miles, and he stands up nicely." If they asked, "What have his
get done?" I would have to say, "Nothing, but they stand up nicely."

I am honest enough to admit that these people can go next door
(literally) to the killer and buy a horse that has also done nothing,
but stands up nicely.

10 years from now, when I have competed him more heavily and have raised
and competed his get and have proven my endurance breeding program, then
maybe I would be justified in asking more than "meat man" prices for my
horses. But probably, by that time, I, too, will be willing to
virtually give my horses away (since I would never get to that position
without being independently wealthy) to great endurance riders who are
capable of competing them to their potential, for the joy of seeing them
achieve their potential.

Until then, I will not be insulted if somebody offers me killer prices
for my horses. (I probably won't sell them to them either, but that is
beside the point.) So go ahead and look for the bargain horse, you will
probably find one. And if that bargain horse doesn't work out as an
endurance mount, it probably wasn't because of the price you paid for
it. There is also absolutely no data to support the assertion that
endurance performance capability is in any way linked to purchase price
of the horse, and a more expensive one may not work out either.

And if you want to come out to my place, we can go over to the killer
together, and I will help you find what could easily be just as good of a
horse, for "meat man" prices. I am of the opinion that the meat man has
some very quality horses (although not all of them, so don't go there if
you are incapable of abandoning a horse that is not right for you to its,
not too pleasant, fate).

When my horses distinguish themselves, THEN maybe I can be insulted when
people offer me market prices for them. Until then, I will just keep them.

kat
Orange County, Calif.

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