Qualification Change for Nationals: Overall NC Stats & Information

[Tami Lange <tamitl67@yahoo.com>]

Dear Dr. Fleming, and the AERC Board of Directors:

I am writing today to appeal a proposed rule change to
the 2002 National Championship ride.  

My first point is that we should not make a rule
change in the middle of the ride season.  I understand
that the board voted in a rule change, changing the
qualifications to 500 horse/rider team miles for the
2002 NC.  However, this rule change was voted on well
after August 15th, which marks the beginning of
qualifying for next year's NC.  If this rule change is
approved at the convention in early March, it will not
be published in Endurance News until April, which is 8
months into the ride season.  This seems improper,
since many of our Members might have added late fall
rides or even winter rides to attempt to reach these
proposed qualifications.  The opportunity to have
achieved these miles is gone. 

Conclusion: If such a change is ultimately considered
best, it would make sense that this change would be
initiated no sooner than the begining of the 2003 ride
season, and communicated via Endurance News well in
advance of the ride season.

Furthermore, regarding the proposed 500 horse/rider
team requirement, I would also submit the following
information for your consideration.

Under the proposed rule change less then 50% of the
123 Qualified 50 MILE Starters at the 2001 NC would
have been accepted.  Thirty Five Percent (35%) of the
62 riders who did not have the 500 horse/rider team
miles were endurance riders with well over 1,000
Lifetime Endurance miles.  One of those riders had
over 15,000 Lifetime miles.  Also, many of the horses
that had under 500 horse/rider miles had over 1,000
total endurance miles, with different riders (three
HORSES had over 4,000 miles, but under 500 horse/rider
team miles, their riders were also experienced).  

Conclusion: The proposed 500 horse/rider team miles
requirement seems unneccessarily stringent and would
eliminate quite a few potential riders and horses,
many of which are very experienced in their own right.

One pertinent Ride Camp Post stated: "According to the
online database if the 500 mile rider/horse
combination had
been in effect ( for a NC ride back in '98 )Valerie
Kanavy and Jedi wouldn't have been qualified to ride
the NC but did go and win the WEC. We do need to be a
bit careful...about these criteria to determine the
unintended consequences of any standard put into
effect."

A question for all of us to consider carefully is
whether the proposed 500 horse/rider criteria is the
best way to determine who qualifies for Nationals.

Furthermore, if the reason for the proposed change in
rules is due to a belief that newer riders are harming
their horses by competing at this level, please review
the following statistics.

For the purpose of analyzing the statistics, I have
formed two classifications.  Those riders with 1,000
Lifetime Endurance Miles, and those with under 1,000
Lifetime Endurance Miles.  

Of the 123 riders at the 2001 Nationals, 72 had over
1,000 lifetime miles and 51 had under 1,000 lifetime
miles.  Of the 72 more experienced riders 60%
completed and 40% pulled.  Of the 51 newer riders 69%
completed and 31% pulled.

When I posted this information on Ride Camp, some
writers responded that this was because higher mileage
riders know when to pull themselves.  I e mailed Dr.
Dane Frazier, the Head Veterinarian at this ride and
he wrote:

"There were a few horses eliminated by the rider, but
they were few.  The number I do not remember...."   
"Yet, in thinking back over more time than I wish to
acknowledge in this sport;  the vast majority of the
major "wrecks" that I have seen have happened to high
mileage horses and high mileage riders. (another fact
that  my personal preferences would not like to
acknowledge)  Interestingly enough, these "events"
have occurred in the greatest numbers at rides where
qualification to enter were very high, with the most
experienced riders, and the most knowledgeable
veterinians in the sport."  (I have attached Dr.
Frazier's entire reply below).

An interesting note is that 23.5% of the National
Championship riders had UNDER 500 LIFETIME MILES, but
only 13% of the VETERINARY PULLS, were riders with
under 500 Lifetime miles.  Also, of the 78 riders to
complete, 37% were riders with OVER 500 HORSE/TEAM
MILES, and of the 45 PULLS, 55% of the pulls had OVER
500 HORSE/TEAM MILES. 

Dr. Fraizer and others had concerns about using the
statistics of one race to prove a specific point.  So
I have researched the statistics from the Biltmore 50
and the Camp Far West ride in addition to the NC 2001.
Please consider the following.

There were a total of 345 riders in these three rides.
 Of the 345 riders 183 had over 1,000 lifetime miles
and 162 had under 1,000 lifetime miles.  Of the 183
more experienced riders 70% completed, 29% pulled, and
1% were Rider Option.  Of the 162 newer riders 69%
completed, 27% pulled, 3% were rider option, and 1%
was overtime. I also researched the statistics of
riders with under 500 LIFETIME MILES.  They are as
follows: 72 out of the 345 starters had under 500
miles.  Of these 72 riders 69% completed, 27% pulled,
and 4% were rider option. 

As you can see, the averages are very, very close.
Also, it is interesting to note that on average in
these three rides, new riders were MORE likely to pull
under RIDER OPTION, than more experienced riders. (I
have also viewed the statistics of 5 other races PULL
DATA ONLY and have found this same pattern as in the
NC, Biltmore, and Camp Far West).

Conclusion: If we are willing to let the statistics
speak, there is no reason to eliminate newer riders
based on the fear that they will over-ride/hurt their
horses when compared to more experienced riders.

I wish to submit, based on these statistics and in
consideration of the above points that we do not
change the requirments for the AERC National
Championship until further study proves that such
changes are needed, helpful and what the AERC
MEMBERSHIP wants our National Championship to be all
about. 

Sincerely,
Tami Lange 

If you would like a copy of Dr. Dane Fraziers entire
letter, please email me at tamitl67@yahoo.com  

  


         


























__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Sports - Coverage of the 2002 Olympic Games
http://sports.yahoo.com