Fw: Islamic Radical Network

["Robyn Levash" <questarabians@inreach.com>]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: <alert@stratfor.com>
To: <redalert@stratfor.com>
Sent: Sunday, September 16, 2001 3:01 PM
Subject: Islamic Radical Network


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16 September 2001

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U.S. Faces Islamic Radical Network
2100 GMT, 010916

Summary

This week's terrorist attacks demonstrate clearly for 
the first time the existence of a multi-national, global 
network of Islamic radicals and their sympathizers. The 
United States is gearing up for war against an enemy 
that may span half the globe and is comprised of 
thousands individuals and different organizations. 

Analysis

The United States has declared war on international 
terrorism. In his weekly radio address Sept. 15 U.S. 
President George W. Bush warned Americans to brace 
themselves for "a conflict without battlefields or 
beachheads," and called on U.S. military personnel to 
get ready for battle. The president earlier met with his 
top security advisors at Camp David in order to hammer 
out a U.S. military response to the Sept. 11 terrorist 
attacks on the United States.

Identifying the enemy, however, will be neither simple 
nor straightforward. A number of officials including 
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell have named Saudi 
exile Osama bin Laden as the chief suspect. But evidence 
suggests that while his umbrella organization Al-Qaida 
was involved at some point, bin Laden himself isn't 
likely the mastermind behind the attacks. The skill and 
scope of the operation indicates that more than one base 
of support was necessary. 
    
The operational resources required to pull off this 
week's attacks indicate the existence of a much larger 
threat, a multi-national radical Islamic network with 
operatives and sympathizers all across the globe. Such a 
network likely connects a variety of Islamic radical and 
terrorist groups. 

Understanding this is the key to Washington's 
warfighting strategy. In aiming to dismantle the 
infrastructure supporting terrorist groups, the United 
States will now begin focusing efforts on identifying 
members and supporters of this global network. Bin Laden 
and Al-Qaida will likely be only the first targets.

As the world's most notorious terrorist leader bin Laden 
has provided training, logistics and support to a host 
of Islamic radicals including Algerian, Egyptian, 
Jordanian, Pakistani, Sudanese, Syrian and Yemeni 
nationals. His training camps in Afghanistan provide a 
basis for learning the tools and techniques of 
terrorism. In a way bin Laden could be thought of as the 
president of a university devoted to the education of 
radical Islamic terrorists. 

But taking out bin Laden won't end the threat of more 
terrorist attacks against the United States, since logic 
dictates that Al-Qaida could not have been the only 
organization involved in the Sept. 11 strikes.

Like any business venture, no one group would be able to 
supply all the resources. Instead, various aspects of 
the operation would be farmed out to different groups or 
individuals within the network. Al-Qaida as an umbrella 
organization is but one group within a network of 
radical Islamic organizations that stretches from Cairo 
to Manila, from Kabul to Algiers. 

The sheer scope and skill with which the operations were 
carried out required several levels of planning, 
organizing, intelligence and operational experience and 
capabilities. 

The masterminds behind this week's operation began 
forming their attack plan years ago. They then needed to 
locate funding and likely turned to sympathetic 
financiers who could arrange for aid from even more 
sympathetic donors. The planners also set up separate 
departments with directors to handle 
counterintelligence, logistics, training, diplomatic 
covers and passports, finances and recruitment. At the 
same time, security is maintained by isolating each 
department from the others so that the organization is 
not compromised.

Each division required support from a variety of 
sources, which neither bin Laden nor his network could 
provide. In fact, to say bin Laden himself masterminded 
the assault overlooks some important limitations under 
which he is currently operating. 

For one he is trapped in Afghanistan and is limited in 
what he can do. The Saudi dissident cannot even make 
phone calls and has had to resort to courier services in 
order to communicate with his associates. 

For years, the United States tracked communications in 
country and listened in on his phone conversations made 
over the Immarsat-3 satellite telephone network. 
Directing an operation like the one that took place 
Sept. 11 would require flexible management that could 
adapt to a variety of situations, necessitating quick 
and reliable means of communication.

Even financing the operation would have required 
resources beyond bin Laden and Al-Qaida's ability. 
According to U.S. officials quoted by United Press 
International, Washington had bin Laden's financial and 
operational networks almost "completely mapped" out in 
detail by mid-1997. 

This suggest that bin Laden's finances have been at most 
severely limited and at least under constant 
surveillance. It would have been impossible for his 
bankers to wire money to operatives in the United States 
without tipping off U.S. intelligence agencies. Clearly, 
bin Laden could not have financed this week's operation 
alone. 

Al-Qaida could have easily provided training and perhaps 
even recruits. But there are several other organizations 
that could also be tapped for intelligence, logistical 
assistance, operational planning and financing. For 
example, the Egyptian group al-Gama'at al-Islamiyya 
orchestrated the bombing of the World Trade Center in 
1993 and has experience operating in the United States. 
It also has links to Egyptian intelligence and business 
leaders who travel frequently and could provide 
information on airline security standards in the United 
States.

Another example can be seen in the bombing of the USS 
Cole in Yemen last October. The group blamed for that 
attack has been linked to bin Laden, but there is no 
evidence that it acted directly under his command. That 
group, like the recent attackers, employed crude tactics 
and weapons in a sophisticated manner to cause massive 
damage. It managed to severely damage a U.S. destroyer, 
not to mention the U.S. sense of dominance, with a 
rubber inflatable boat.

Indeed, there are hundreds of radical Islamic 
organizations operating around the world, all individual 
and distinct from each other, that could have provided 
support. Although in the past a majority focused on 
local issues and did not operate beyond their national 
borders, a new picture is now emerging. 

This picture is one of a global network tying all 
Islamic groups together in a loose coalition. Like the 
Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, this network is comprised 
of organizations and sympathetic individuals from all 
over the Muslim world, including financiers and aid 
donors, government officials and diplomats, former and 
possibly current military officers, intelligence agents, 
former and current guerrilla and militant groups, 
information technology specialists and operational 
commanders and their lieutenants. 

It is then quite possible that the group that 
masterminded the Sept. 11 terror attacks is comprised of 
a collection of individuals from several different 
countries. Indeed, the FBI's list of suspects reads like 
a student roster from the renowned Al-Ahzar University 
in Cairo. The operatives who carried out the attack came 
from countries across the Middle East, including 
possibly Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the United 
Arab Emirates. There was no local issue tying them all 
together. 

The United States thinks it is going to war with bin 
Laden, Al-Qaida or the unnamed group directly 
responsible for this week's attacks. But taking down the 
infrastructure supporting these groups will require the 
U.S. to identify and dismantle the larger, global 
network. That, like dismantling the drug trafficking 
networks in Latin America, West Africa or Europe, will 
be a monumental task.

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