RC: Re: Cutoff Times

["Nancy Mitts" <mitts_n@hotmail.com>]

David,
Very interesting work, I'm interested to see more!

>For both 25's and 50's, winning speeds ranged from 4MPH to about >15MPH. 
>100's ranged from 5MPH to almost 12MPH.
>Average winning speed was 8.9 MPH for 25 mile races, 9.6 MPH for 50 >mile 
>races, and 8.2 MPH for 100s.
>I find this interesting, since it is the reverse of what I would have
>expected to find between 25's and 50's

Actually this didn't surprise me at all. Sometimes the 25's give the 
impression they're being overridden because there's always SOME not in as 
good condition, or with as knowledgable riders (i.e.  unintentional 
overriding by beginners.) Apparently in some areas racing to prove a horse 
for sale is an issue. The majority of riders are doing a good job, thus the 
lower average speed. I'd be interested in regional differences if you ever 
get that pulled out.

>this project (other than geekiness) was that someone wrote me and was
>concerned that perhaps LD riders were overriding their horses, and >that LD 
>(particularly fast rides) could pose a larger danger to >horses than longer 
>distances where you presumably have to ride >slower.

IMO the biggest danger is future lameness from too much speed too early in 
career, and in not taking time to teach the horses to eat & drink. (For 25 
miles they can get by without it.)

>Perhaps overriding one's horse is more a function of people than >ride 
>distance, and the horse is more likely to emerge undamaged from >being 
>overridden for 25 miles than 50, but I'm guessing.

I'm thinking this is a pretty good guess. Although as far as emerging 
undamaged--that's probably in the short term only.


>Another interesting bit of information is that completion rate cannot be 
>predicted from the winning rider's speed - there's no valid statistical 
>relationship there. for example, above a 12 MPH  winning speed, there were 
>no races with less than 2/3 of the riders completing.  For winning speeds 
>of less than 8 MPH, completion rates dropped as low as 25% (rides where no 
>one completed excluded).

"Easier" rides (good footing, good weather, etc.) produce faster times, no 
big surprise there either.

Nancy Mitts
Central Region
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