Here's what I do for fun

[Tivers@aol.com]

I've been consulting on a TB in Peru for a couple of years--named Domingo. He 
is thus far undefeated since the owner's daughter and I took over the 
training--he was 7th in the previous race. 

Today he ran in the first leg of this year's Peruvian Triple Crown. Here are 
some exchanges leading up to the race:

ti

>Domingo's race is tomorrow at 3:15pm
 It'll be a tough race again. The#5a  horse is the one that finished second
 to Domingo by a head in the group 1 race last year, he will be running with
 a stable partner to go after Domingo in the first half, since he runs
 further behind.
 
 This horse's last races have been Feb 13th 2000mtrs TURF 1st in 2:02''4,
 March 12th 2400mtrs TURF 2nd in 2:28''1, April 10th 2100mtrs Sand 2nd in
 2:12. His workouts for this race May 20th 1200 in 1:13''5,   May 26th 1300
 from the gate in 1:19,  and a fast 700mtrs yesterday.  There are a couple
 other decent horses. We'll probably be running much like the last race.
 We've got #3. Take the lead but if someone wants to fight at the front let
 him go ahead, follow close behind  and start moving the last 800mtrs?
 
 Gabriela>

Well, this 5A is a pretty damned good horse with stamina as his finest 
quality. But I think Domingo can beat him in a sprint to the finish.

A sprinter wins a race by running a slow pace (but forcing the contenders to 
run slow, too) and sprinting at the end with full firepower--lulling the 
competition to sleep if he can. The stayer's best tactic is to push the pace. 
In this case, if they are able to sucker Domingo into a front-end sprint, 
this stayer just might overcome him as he fatigues at the end. This horse 
could approach Domingo's demonstrated speed (thus far) at the mile. I'd run 
this one a little differently.

I'd let the rabbit go and stick with the 5A, crusing along in front of him 
once things settle down, and stepping on the gas every time he tries to make 
a pass. 

Now, this tactic could get you into traffic. With the rabbit coming back to 
you and boxing you in. So you still can't wait for the homestretch to make 
your move--again, you have to take command going into or during the final 
turn. 

But I'd take it easy to the half--no matter what the rabbit does.

Think about these things and give instructions that fit your best judgement 
at racetime.

You will win. But it will be a tough race. Use your resources carefully. 

As always, wishing you the very best of luck.

Tom

>As always I am amazed by how wise you are and how much you know. Things
happened just as you describe them above. Domingo had a good start and took
the lead as always while two other horses went after him and our jockey let
them go ahead. We did get stuck with these two horses in front coming in to
the turn and our toughest rival 5A actually got ahead and took the lead , he
was one and a half lengths in front of the rest when Domingo found an
opening and came after him, overtook him ,and started separating to win by
almost 3 lengths in 1:37''2. Track record for the season.


Thanks Tom! your help is invaluable, and Domingo is the best!

Gabriela